NORTHERN New South Wales had the closest thing it has seen to general rain in months over this week, and prices have eased accordingly.

The falls soaked some districts and missed others entirely, but have generally brightened prospects for areas south and west of Narrabri.

The rain has made the likelihood of a cargo of Western Australian feed wheat arriving in Brisbane seem unlikely as the local market softens, and export values firm.

Most crops in central and southern NSW, as well as South Australia and Victoria, also got a drink from the system to further strengthen the start being enjoyed by most of the southern region.

The upshot has been softening values in the north, and firmer values in the south, with rain doing little to encourage widespread grower selling of cereals in the near term.

	May 14	Today
Downs barley	$438	$425
Downs SFW	$427	$425
Downs sorghum	$380	$360
Mel barley	$345	$352
Mel ASW	$365	$370

Table 1: Indicative prices in Australian dollars per tonne.

Rain softens north

Rain in central and northern NSW will be more than enough to germinate some dry-sown cereals planted ahead of the forecast system.

Higher registrations for the week to 9am today include: Condobolin 25mm; Coonamble 29mm; Gunnedah 54mm; Manildra 35mm; Narrabri 30mm; Nevertire 54mm; Parkes 47mm; Trangie 62mm, and Walgett 31mm.

However, some districts got little rain, and they include: Moree 5mm; Mungindi 4mm; Pallamallawa 11mm; Wee Waa 13mm.

Other Bureau of Meteorology gauges at sites including Burren Junction, Garah, Nyngan, and Rowena recorded nothing.

Much of the New England received 30-50mm, but with cold weather setting in on the tablelands, pasture growth in this key grazing region will be limited.

Trade sources say ASW wheat free-on-truck Brisbane has traded at $445-$450/t July-August for sale into poultry and other feedmills in Greater Brisbane.

While it has been sold on an ex-boat basis, it may be filled by road deliveries from Qld or northern NSW instead.

Sunrise Commodities managing director Scott Merson said the rain is unlikely to loosen the grower’s hold on stocks as long as winter-crop prospects remain uncertain.

“A lot of the areas where stock is sitting, so north of Bellata and west of the Newell Highway,  didn’t get that much rain,” Mr Merson said.

BOM’s forecast points to 10-15mm of rain next week for much of northern and central NSW, and Mr Merson this could allow for more planting in the main wheat and barley window.

“We’re not out of the game by any stretch.”

Some Qld growing areas also had rain this week, and registrations include: Dalby 15mm; Felton 24mm; Macalister 17mm; Miles and Surat 11mm; Roma 18mm, and Yuleba 20mm.

However, some BOM gauges, including those at Condamine, Goondiwindi, and St George recorded nothing, or close to it.

In south-west Qld, Mr Merson said growers would be wary of planting into minimal moisture, and may well opt to fallow over winter in the hope they can plant a summer crop.

Feedlots and other up-country consumers continue to source grain from as far south as Forbes, and Mr Merson said growers well into NSW may be keen to sell in coming weeks or months if their new-crop production prospects look reasonable.

“This rain probably will help to loosen stocks from those areas.”

With southern growers mostly planted, and a chunk of their urea requirements locked in, the scramble for fertiliser has subsided.

Helping this has been the later and staggered start over limited area for crops in southern Qld and northern NSW, and modest yield prospects for northern cereals.

“No-one’s expecting a big crop; you’ll only feed for 4tha at best, and that sort of crop doesn’t have the same nitrogen requirement as a big one.”

Southern sales sluggish

The southern season keeps getting better, with this latest system delivering rain to most crops from SA’s Eyre Peninsula through to the south-west slopes of NSW.

In SA, plenty of crops received 20-40mm, although some spots had only single-digit registrations.

In Vic, registrations generally topped out at 30mm.

In southern NSW, registrations include: Lake Cargelligo 25mm; Cootamundra 38mm; Deniliquin 27mm; Temora 21mm; Urana 60mm; West Wyalong 45mm, and Young 29mm.

“The crop’s in pretty decent order,” one southern NSW trader said.

“We had mild April weather on the back of March rain, and two decent rainfalls since.”

As intimated by GrainCorp’s half-year results out last week, growers across eastern Australia did not flood the dominant bulk handler at harvest.

With wheat exports from all three eastern states being slow due to depressed export pricing, traders’ and brokers’ ideas that the grower is long current-crop grain appear justified.

“Growers are only selling a limited amount to keep the cash flow ticking over when they’re buying urea.

“The main long is on farm with the grower; it’s not in the system.”

Depending on their own crop’s area and yield outlook, some growers may let cereals go once the new financial year rolls around on July 1.

While barley exports remain strong, one trader said demand for bulk wheat is “non-existent” as eastern Australian values for ASW-type wheat have trouble stacking up against cargoes from Western Australia and other origins.